Apr 23, 2009

Pune Elections Predictions Suresh Kalmadi , Anil Shirole struggle. Ranjit Shirole grabs some votes

Pune comprises of 5 Assembly constituencies of Pune.. that finally make up the city loksabha seat which sees a multi candidate was leading in the race Suresh Kalmadi , followed by Anil Shirole of BJP, DSK of BSP and Maay Marathi candidate Ranjit Shirole...

I met a few friends today majority of them involved in campaigning of one or the other candidate and tried to have a quick glance of what there personal thoughts are... over and over it looks like Suresh Kalmadi who was until yesterday a clear leader today will have to struggle to get more and more people to vote for him... At the same time Ranjit Shirole eats up the votes that were always a part of the Shiv Sena BJP cadre.. this time due to the fact that Anil Shirole talks about Pune development while Ranjit Shirole talks about local community supports, Marathi issue, employement to locals etc... DSK on the other hand seems to have affected some of the Muslim and Dalit votes ....

While Both BJP and Congress are going to be affected by the MNS candidate Ranjit Shirole and BSP candidate DSK .. it also looks like Anil SHirole and Suresh Kalmadi may loose the traditional strong hold... Going through the electoral assembly break ups.. here is what I think would lead the candidates when they go to results...

Remember it is half a day and the peak hours of voting just begin now... so the predications will be changed when I get some information from the Electoral officer/ friends/ reportes etc...

Here is what I think would be the ranks in each of the constituencies for the Pune seat

Kasba Assembly Seat
1. Anil Shirole
2. Ranjit Shirole
3. Suresh Kalmadi
4. DSK

Shivaji Nagar
1. Anil Shirole
2. Suresh Kalmadi
3. Ranjit Shirole
4. DSK

Parvati
1. Suresh Kalmadi
2. Anil Shirole
3. DSK
4. Ranjit Shirole

Wadgaon Sheri
1. Suresh Kalmadi
2. Anil Shirole
3. Ranjit Shirole
4. DSK

Cantonment
1. Suresh kalmadi
2. DSK
3. Anil Shirole
4. Ranjit Shirole

Kothrud
1. Anil SHirole
2. Suresh Kalmadi
3. Ranjit Shirole
4. DSK

Vis a Vis though both Anil Shirole and Suresh Kalmadi looks to be winning 3 assembly seats each the leads they are going to get from each of these seats doesnt look to be more...With Shivajinagar and Kothrud being densely voted Kasba Peth is relatively less votes and same applies to Cantonment .. so over and Over if Ranjit SHirole takes a pan cake of 20-25 K votes in this elections and it the same number is reached by DSK then Kalmadi and Anil SHirole see a war ending with a margin of 25,000 to 50,000 votes... but Vadgaon Sheri, Cantonment and Parvati has always stood by Congress and this time with a restructure Shivaji Nagar also looks very much in favour of Congress Suresh Kalmadi seems to be taking the lolly

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