Apr 22, 2009

Pune Elections - Predictions are never good

Pune goes to its elections tomorrow... The 4 constituencies that make Pune really Pune is going for elections tomorrow with Shirur, Baramati, Pune and Mawal Lok sabha seats going fr elections it looks to me that NCP wins 2 of the seats while Congress and Shiv Sena take one each...

Supriya Sule from Bramati that covers major part of the Pune city too is going to have some challenge in keeping the winning margin as her fathers specially due to the fact that this time Warje, Kothrud, Paud , Hadapsar and various other areas of the Pune city have gone under the Baramati constituency where Sharad Pawar or Supriya Sule has little or less influence... Eventually the race is not a race... Kanta Nalawade and other contestants of the elections have known the fact that they are loosing by a bad margin and to avoid the end of their political careers they are not contesting hard...

So overall considering Supriya Sule's popularity and presence her winning the Baramati seat is more or less done. Margin my best guess is 3 lakhs

Pune City Loksabha has seen soem rumours, allegations and lot of uncertainty... however it clearly looks like Suresh Kalmadi is winning the race beating the BJP contestant Anil Shirole by a margin of atleast 1 lakh vote... Pune has always being a margin of 1 lakh vote when Congress Won or lost.. this margin has never changed... it was stated earlier that DSK the BJP candidate will give Suresh Kalmadi and Anil Shirole a run for their money looks to have lost the elections in ground reality... for the fact that he spent more time on publicizing his face than asking for votes really... On the other hand once an ally of Suresh Kalmadi , Shrikant Shirole has his sone put up for elections under the infamous Raj Thackerey banner... Ranjit Shirole doesnt look to be promising in thie elections atleast... On How Anil Shirole sees his future... I guess the BJP made a mistake by pulling him in for this elections... they could have easily got Anna Joshi who has defeated strong congress candidate in Pune. Arun Bhatia and others are not even getting 15K votes shared with others

Overall considering the campaigning and people support...it looks like Suresh Kalmadi will win the margin by 50K to 1 lakh votes.

Shirur ... fought by Vilas Lande from PCMC has really done well, taken the support from the NCP faction this NCP leader has really bought the congress and NCP in one roof and looks like though he has a good fight scheduled with Shivajirao Adhalrao patil.. he may not be able to make against Shivaji Rao patil. Vilas Lande looks to have tough fight planned... I dont want to predict this but whoever wins will not win by 25K

The last Mawal seat sees Azambhai Pansare of NCP fighting Gajanan Babar of SHiv Sena.. though Shiv Sena candidate has more power and base to him.. it is unlikely that he will will specially cause of the structure of the constituency that goes in favour of the pune localite Azam Bhai Pansare...

So on an Pune sees 3 seats straight in the bucket of Congress and NCP (majorly NCP with 2) and one which will have a tough fight.

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